2030 projection
The trend fitted to 2018–2024 (the COVID-hit 2020 excluded) puts F1 at 152,481 tCO2e, a 40.6% cut against the 50% commitment. Use the levers below to model what a different set of decisions would deliver.
Verdict · With your levers, does F1 make it?
Off track — this scenario reaches 44.7% by 2030. With no new action the forecast gives 0% odds.
6%
Scenario odds on target
Forecast (no new action)
40.6%
152,481 tCO2e in 2030 · likely 141,279–164,481.
Scenario outcome
44.7%
141,897 tCO2e with the levers as set.
Gap to target
13,622tCO2e
Still to be removed, or offset, to comply.
Residual to offset
141,897tCO2e
Net zero requires removing or offsetting whatever survives the cuts.
Applied to the 2024 footprint of 189,848 tCO2e.
Biofuel trucks, sea and rail substitution, lighter and fewer sea-kit sets.
Grouping races geographically so the freight route stops zig-zagging continents.
Share of team, staff and broadcast flying covered by SAF rather than kerosene.
Certified renewable power and on-site generation across factories and offices.
Replacing diesel generators at circuits with grid power, batteries and biofuel.
Each bar shows the modelled 2030 outcome against today's level for that source.
Verdict
This combination reaches only 44.7%. Another 13,622 tCO2e has to come out — realistically from freight, since it is the largest pool and the least addressed so far.
Two independent methods, deliberately kept simple and legible.
Forecast model
A log-linear trend is fitted to every observed season except 2020. Resampling its year-to-year scatter 2,000 times gives a central forecast, an 80% likely range and the share of runs that land under the 50% target. It assumes no new interventions, and it updates whenever a new season total is entered.
Lever scenario
Each lever reduces its category pool by the slider value multiplied by an effectiveness ceiling, because no measure fully eliminates its source. SAF caps at 70% lifecycle saving, facility renewables at 90%, freight measures at a combined 80%, event electrification at 65%.
Final verdict · Scenario
Off track — these levers still leave 13,622 t above target. Push freight and travel harder.
6%
Odds
